Why the Outcome of the 2018 Midterm Elections Matter

How the elections will shape Congress and American politics

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Photo by Michele Sullivan

In one of the highest turnouts for midterm elections, young voters proved they have weight in the polls.

The midterm election will determine the course that American politics will take for the remainder of Donald Trump’s Presidency and will shape America greatly for years to come. The midterm elections takes place near the midpoint of every US President’s term; it determines each State’s representation in Congress, that includes both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

In this 2018 election, there are many positions of power at stake. The most important of the midterms are the available positions for federal and state officials. Consisting of four hundred and thirty-five seats in the US House of Representatives, one-third of the seats in the US Senate, thirty-six state governorships, and three US territory governorships. 

The legislative branch of the federal government is Congress, made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Republicans currently hold majority in both chambers in the Membership of the 115th Congress. There are two hundred and thirty-seven Republicans, including one Delegate and the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico and one hundred and ninety-seven Democrats, including four Delegates. The Senate has fifty-one Republicans, forty-seven Democrats and two Independents.

The reason the midterm election is so important is because the Democratic party has the power to derail the Republican agenda if it gains majority. To have control over the senate, Democrats must keep all the seats they currently have and gain two more. To win majority of the House, Democrats need to acquire twenty four more seats.

Consequently, the Democrat party gaining majority would change the future of the Trump administration. An obvious result would be stonewalling Trump’s future policies and bills; the party would have the power to reject any legislation. People could expect to see more investigations into President Trump’s campaign and Cabinet. Although, the most drastic result would be the likely move to impeach President Trump. A possibility is the Ways and and Means committee being requested to obtain Trump’s tax reforms from Secretary of Treasury, Steve Mnuchin.

Though, if the Republican party continues to hold majority in Congress they can proceed with their agenda and keep passing new laws. One could expect, that both chambers could help shut down the Affordable Care Act and that Trump will continue to push for a border wall. Additionally, lawmakers will work to authorize tax cuts to middle class and promote new trade policies. A crucial point is that senate Republicans will continue to confirm judges to the Supreme Court and already won confirmation of twelve federal court judges, which is a record.

Usually, the midterm election has a significantly lower voter turnout, although it seems like this won’t be the case this time around. Even though, there won’t be an exact number until a few days after the election. Thirty-six million citizens voted early, compared to 2014, when twenty-seven million people voted early, according to Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who tracks voter turnout.

With that said, there has even been an increase in young voters since the 2014 midterms, remember that 2014 was the lowest young turnout in forty years.  Having an increase in young voters would be an advantage for the Democratic party, considering most midterm elections are dominated by older citizens, which tend to be in the Republican demographic.

In Havard’s recent National Youth Poll, it’s reported that forty percent of eighteen to twenty-one year olds indicate that they are likely to vote on November 6 and that nearly three-in-five likely voters say that they will have fear if the Republicans maintain control of the House.

This year’s election will hold a very integral position in the future of who we are as Americans. Results will begin to be counted as soon as the polling stations are closed on November 6 and will released to public knowledge once finished.